By Michael Cohen
The most recent obsession in election analysis is to pre-certify that 2006 will be the first off-year national election since 1994. You can almost hear the keyboards whirling to meet November 7 deadlines for instant post-mortem textbooks and bestsellers on why Republicans should have seen it coming. Ahead of those high-minded tomes, you see columnists, talking heads, and bloggers cheering and despairing over what it all means.
While they are consuming the tea leaves right in front of them they ignore the wider fundamental truth of the forest. Former Democratic Speaker Thomas “Tip” O'Neill had it right decades ago in his political analysis: all politics is local, not national. Despite nationwide polling that says Americans believe the United States is on the wrong track, Article I of the Constitution still provides for separate contests in individual states for members of Congress. It is more important what is going on in your district than what is going on here in Washington DC.
But, to be fair, the tea leaves do smell familiar. Presidential and congressional approval ratings are now worse than they were before the 1994 elections. Scandals in the Democratic House led to resignations as they have in the Republican House. Clinton's top legislative priority, healthcare reform did not get through Congress despite his party's control. Bush has been unable to get through Social Security reform and now it appears that immigration is stalled. Even worse for Bush, an unpopular war is splitting Republicans and pushing away independents.
Since George W. Bush took office as president, the generic ballot has been mixed. In June 2004, Democrats had an eight-point advantage in the George Washington University but Republicans won more seats in Congress in November. In June 2002, Gallup had Democrats also eight points ahead of Republicans in the generic ballot. Again, Republicans won more seats.
Back in 2000 Gallup had Republicans ahead by two points and they gained seats. While this year's generic balloting favors Democrats, the range has been very wide from 16% to 3% suggesting to me that the national electorate is not completely sold on Republicans returning to the minority.
Leaving aside the generic ballot let's look at what really matters: individual races. Right now the Democrats need a change of 15 seats to win the House and 6 to win the Senate. While this seems like better numbers than 1994 where Republicans needed more in both chambers, the number of competitive races is far more important.
According to the Cook Political Report, there are only 6 Republican Senate seats and 11 in the House listed as toss-ups. This is short of what they need to win. Things have to get substantially worse for Republicans in more campaigns if they are going to lose either chamber.
For more than twenty years, Democrats and Republicans willfully made their seats safer by piling more of their own in incumbent districts through redistricting agreements. This has worked very well for incumbents as more have less to worry about on Election Days but it has also hurt Democrats in their quest to retake Congress.
What Democrats need today, and what Republicans got in 1994, was a mass migration of incumbents retiring. It has not happened. With fewer opportunities to win seat changes, Democrats need more than a perfect storm to hit the forest to change the geography.
In 1994 Democrats were caught off-guard which is one reason why the Republican takeover was so dramatic. No one is taking the election lightly this time around. Since 1994, national and state parties, incumbents, and challengers have improved tools to raise money, gauge public opinion and organize supporters. The fundraising has been up significantly and candidates in both parties have improved their Internet efforts.
More campaigns are polling and targeting voters, leading to better paid and earned outreach. Democrats have recognized Republican advantages in mobilizing turnout and are taking steps to improve. Overall, everyone is campaigning better and you would be hard-pressed to find an incumbent his or her reelection for granted.
For Democrats to recapture the House or the Senate they need to focus more on what is going on inside each race. The result in Duke Cunningham's California 50 district are instructive. While the national mood has been running against Republicans, corruption, and lobbyists, the district was more concerned with immigration.
A late gaffe/gift from the Democratic candidate, Francine Busby made her look like an illegal enabler. Her quote was repeated in an ad sponsored by her opponent Brian Bilbray, “Everybody can help. You can all help. You don't need papers for voting.” Apparently not enough of them voted as the former congressman-turned-lobbyist returned to Congress.
The Bilbray win also proves that you can be a Republican, disagree with the president on his top legislative priority, and still get full party support. While Bilbray's position on immigration was not in sync with Bush's, Vice President Dick Cheney spoke at a fundraiser. Overall, Republicans outspent Democrats to retain the seat. Nothing focuses a politician like the possibility of losing.
In short, this year's campaigns will do what it takes to win by inviting those who can help and keeping their distance from those who will not. George W. Bush will be campaigning publicly where he can help and by phone where he might hurt.
Democrats can help themselves by rallying around their incumbents. If you read through blogs like DailyKos and MyDD there should be reasons for concern. If these activists cannot get behind incumbents like Joe Lieberman who are sure bets to be reelected, opportunities can be easily missed. If Ned Lamont defeats Lieberman, it is likely that the latter will run as an independent. This will turn valuable media attention away from a Democratic sweep to infighting. Lieberman will have to separate himself from the more liberal Lamont by sounding more moderate, which will inevitably be closer to Bush.
There remains a lot beyond the DC forest we cannot see. Unexpected local events can turn elections. What if hurricane season hits south Florida instead of the gulf coast this time? Will safe Republican incumbents find themselves vulnerable? What if 30,000 troops leave Iraq in the fall and they just happen to return home to toss-up districts? And what happens if all of the Washington rumors are true and there are 5-10 more incumbents indicted in Abramoff-related scandals? Any of these possibilities can turn the election one way or the other.
Yet the conventional wisdom still pervades the nation's capitol, where its authors blather onward. Democratic leaders top openly talk about which members will lead high-profile committees but what they will do when they get the speaker's gavel. There is a campaign being waged, once openly and now behind the scenes, for majority leader.
If you talk with Democratic Hill staffers, they seem to be gliding with President Bush's swagger while Republicans are twitching nervously at their Blackberry calendars. This is happening despite the Republican win in California, the elimination of al-Zarqawi, and the clearing of Rove. The outlook in Washington won't change until it is confirmed in races around the country.
My advice? Focus on your hometown campaigns and listen to the issues that are most important to voters. Ignore Washington. Even in this year, all politics is still local.
Michael Cohen has over 10 years of worldwide experience in
results-oriented strategic research for corporate
branding, ballot initiatives, and issue campaigns.
Michael can be reached at Click here to contact this Author
