By Brad Bannon
For a number of reasons, state and local governments will be on their own trying to solve some of the most pressing problems facing the nation. Washington D.C. is focused on the war in Iraq. We have a presidential administration that believes in state and local government problem solving and it's hard to get anything done inside the Beltway with the partisan divide between Congress and the White House.
Here are some of the issues that are likely to come up in state and local campaigns in 2008 in order of importance.
1. HEALTH CARE
If and when the war in Iraq ends, the federal government will focus on the biggest domestic concern which is health care. In the meantime, state governments will have to deal with popular demands for more affordable health care. Middle class incomes are stagnant but health care prices are soaring, so state governments will have to solve the problem. The federal program, the Child Health Insurance Program expires this year and congressional Democrats are trying to expand the program.
If the president blocks expansion of the CHIP program, the 2008 campaign will include a lot of discussion of what states can or should do to cover the millions of children who do not have health insurance. Political scientists believe that states are the laboratories for innovation in the nation, so it will be interesting to see how states deal with the health care crisis.
California and Massachusetts have recently enacted programs to provide insurance to the uninsured through private insurance companies. Other states like Maine and Oregon have created state run health insurance programs.
2. IMMIGRATION
Because of its inability to legislate the problem, the federal government has handed off another hot potato to state and local governments which is immigration. At the state and local level of government immigration is a fiscal issue as well as a social problem.
Many voters resent the fact that their tax dollars support programs for illegal immigrants. People also feel that the need to educate and care for illegal immigrants is too much of a strain on government budgets. Some states like California have made it more difficult for illegal immigrants to get drivers' licenses.
Many states are also beefing up law enforcement efforts on the Mexican bolder since the efforts of the federal government to stop illegal crossings are stained to the max. Immigration may be the number 1 issue in the southwest. Immigration has replaced gay marriage as the hot button social issue of the day.
3. EDUCATION
A perennial concern at the state and local level of government is education. Education is the big ticket item for state and local governments. The issue will get even hotter between now and Election Day of 2008 because Bill Gates' foundation plans to spend tens of millions of dollars on a media campaign to focus people on the issue before they vote. The Gates initiative will focus on reforms like preschool education, longer school days and merit pay for teachers.
4. TAXES
The inaction of the federal government has put pressure on state and local governments to come up with extra money to care for and educate their residents. .Education is the big ticket item for most state and local governments and health care is second with a bullet.
Since bad things roll downhill, there is a great deal of pressure at the local level on property tax rates. The property tax burden is especially heavy on seniors who own homes but don't have enough income to pay property taxes.
Many seniors can't afford to live in their own homes because of high property taxes. As the population gets older, more voters are increasingly reluctant to raise property taxes to pay for the education of the young.
Many states have tried to raise income and sales taxes in order to give seniors property tax relief but these efforts are tough because voters are cynical and don't trust state government enough to believe that increases in income and sales taxes will lead to property tax decreases.
5. ECONOMY
The fallout from Hurricane Katrina brought Americans face to face with the ugly reality of poverty in America. And for the first time since the 1960's, the discussion about economic issues revolves around ways to bring poor people into the mainstream of the American economy.
John Edwards has made poverty the signature issue of his presidential campaign. The official poverty rate has increased every year since 2001 and the lack of federal action has dumped the issue on state and local governments. Poverty is becoming a big issue because concern is not confined to the poor.
Middle class Americans fear that they are in danger of becoming poor. Incomes for middle class families have stagnated and consumers must pay for inflationary costs for health care, a surge in gasoline and significant increases in college tuition. One indication of the problem is that mortgage foreclosures are at a record high and many states are starting programs to help people keep their homes.
6. ENVIRONMENT
The environment, especially global warming, has emerged as the hot boutique issue of the 2008 campaign. It's not just Al Gore and decades of disaster movies.
The violence of Hurricane Katrina convinced many voters that something is wrong with the environment. Katrina prompted the home insurance industry to redline coastal areas.
This has prompted many states to start their own insurance programs for homes in potentially dangerous areas. Because the federal government has not acted to the threat of global warming, the states have sprung into action. California which is the nation's trendsetter in politics and policy has mandated that vehicles sold in the state significantly improve gas mileage by 2010.
Many state and local governments are discouraging development in coastal areas. One thing that makes this issue easier to address is that voters are increasingly aware that environmental safeguards are good economic policy.
READER WARNING
A warning is in order about the use of issues in political campaigns. People vote for people and not for issues. Swing voters are personality driven and they listen to the candidates mainly to make a judgment about the character of the candidates. So you can talk about issues until the cows come home but unless the candidates talk about the issues to make a point about the kind of person that he or she is, campaign rhetoric will fall on deaf ears.
Brad Bannon is the president of Bannon Communications
Research which is a political consulting and
consulting firm for Democratic candidates.
Brad can be reached at Click here to contact this Author
