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Learn From The Experts Articles
High Stakes Politics ... Not Unlike High Stakes Poker
By David Rabinowe
Turn on the television almost any hour of the day and there are three things you are guaranteed to be able to watch, no matter what time it is: Presidential Election Coverage, No Limit Hold-em Poker, and Law & Order re-runs.
So, what do they all have in common? One word: Drama.
But two of the three have a lot more in common….poker and presidential politics are the same game…..they are just played around different tables.
Imagine this….you are at the World Series of Poker. Sitting at your table are poker royalty. The game’s household names: Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth, Barry Greenstein, Phil Ivey, Greg Raymer, Annie Duke and Doyle Brunson.
You are a rookie, a few years experience, but compared to the field, a long shot. It's true you have played in some local games and had some success, but this is your first time playing in the World Series Main Event. And although you have reached the final table, your odds are long and your stack is short.
The players around you know one another, their tendencies, their game plans, their styles. They are the prohibitive favorites. But you still have a few things going for you. As an unknown you are not a perceived threat. You are left alone to hone your game while the big boys spar with each other, and you are gaining experience with every hand while there are no expectations. You are in it to learn for next time. Quietly you are playing your game, and it has taken you a long way. But now, surrounded by this world class talent, many wonder if you are the "fish" at this table.
Shuffle up and deal!
The game starts, and early on you take a pot off the chip leader. Eyebrow’s raise slightly around the table, but you are still under the radar. Just some well timed beginner’s luck. Still not considered a serious threat. So you grind, winning small pots and avoiding trouble.
And your wins start to add-up. Staying below the radar you begin to accumulate chips. Meanwhile, the leaders start knocking off other players around you. Then, to your surprise, they make some mistakes, and you find yourself well positioned. Suddenly you are a contender.
As the players around you are going bust, the respect for you at the table builds. Players who were supposed to contend start touting your game in their exit-interviews -- they think you might have a shot. You start getting the announcers to endorse you and before long YOU become the story. After all, drama loves an underdog!
Still, the chip leaders are well positioned, and have far more experience, but now you have the momentum. The cards are starting to fall your way. And at last….your chip count makes you the leader.
It’s time to change strategy. Start using your position to your advantage. You let your chip stack work for you. And as you do….you collect more pots. Knocking out more players, you collect their chips, and with their chips comes their respect.
But there is that one player…. She battles you hand for hand. Her fans are cheering every historic move she makes from behind the rail separating the players from supporters, even as your support builds in the crowd. Until now, you have avoided getting tangled in major pots with her, all the while studying her game. But now it is inevitable. You are in the final three. So you use your chips. You play your game, she makes a mistake, then another, and another.
Finally….she busts. You are so close you can taste it, but there is still a great challenge ahead.
You take a deep breath….you are now heads-up for the title.
So does it matter if the title at stake is World Series of Poker Champion or President of the United States?
What if chips become donors, pots become primaries, announcers become pundits and the poker table becomes the electoral map?
What if the names Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth, Barry Greenstein, Phil Ivey, Greg Raymer, Annie Duke and Doyle Brunson change to John Edwards, Mitt Romney, Bill Richardson, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Hillary Clinton and John McCain? What if you are Barak Obama?
There is no doubt that poker and politics share a lot in common.
But the similarities don't end there. The three most fundamental similarities I have saved for last. The first is obvious…to play in the big game, poker or politics, you need money. Someone has to stake you. Supported or self-financed, you have to be able to pay the entry fee. (Though by comparison, I will admit that the World Series of Poker Main Event entry fee of $10,000 seems like a bargain when compared to the cost of a modern day presidential campaign.)
The second similarity is what makes it all worth while. It is why we watch. Why we play. Why we vote. We want a stake in the drama. And at any time, whether its poker or politics, our pick to win it all can go bust. Sometimes it's by their own mistake, a misread, a bad chase in poker, or in presidential politics, a campaign gaffe, Howard Dean’s screaming primary speech, or John Kerry’s “I voted for it before I voted against it” quote.
And then there are times, in both arenas, that you can do everything right, but have fate intervene. As disciplined as you play, as defined as your message is, there are forces out of your control. In poker this is defined by the cooler or bad beat, and in politics it’s defined by Florida in 2000.
So, what can political candidates and poker players learn from each other’s games? The most important similarity: In both poker and presidential politics, to win, you have to be willing to lose. At some point, all of your chips must be in play. In politics you have to be willing to define your positions and let the voters decide. You can't bluff every hand, and you can't bluff the voter. If you try, and get caught, Game Over.
Most political consultants will agree with good poker players …it’s rarely the last hand that seals your fate, just as it's rarely election night that determines the winner. It is something done before, some hand you were right to fold, or right to raise, some speech you were right to give or ad you were right to run, that is the difference between victory and defeat.
So to all you poker players and political junkies, enjoy it while the cards are in the air and the issues are on the table, because neither will last forever. After all, this year, for the first time, there is one final thing politics and poker share in common – timing – in 2008 both titles, World Series Of Poker Champion and President Of The United States will be decided in November.
After that, if we want drama ….its back to Law & Order re-runs.
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