By Tom Edmonds
Written After the 2006 Mid-Term Elections
With a presidential election on the distant horizon, everybody seems to want to predict what's going to happen. But realistically, there is only a handful of events we know will come to pass: We know that over the next two years, scores of polls will be commissioned. We know that candidates will drop in and out, and that denim shirts and khaki pants will become de rigueur on the campaign trail again.
Other than that, the only thing we can count on is change.
At this point, we don't even know who's on the ticket. To hear the pundits tell it, dozens of people are considering a run for the presidency in 2008 -- cabinet members and Congressmen, professors and performers, judges, doctors and governors.
And while it's fun to speculate about who will run and who could emerge as the dark horse, it may be more important to consider on what issues they will run. The U.S. might be a completely different place two years from now.
We are facing terrorism concerns, a bird flu pandemic, international tensions, and economic stress. If any one of those were to escalate to crisis level, the entire landscape of American politics would change.
That's why events -- not individuals, not consultants, not cash-on-hand tallies -- will very likely dictate the presidency in 2008.
We've seen it before. In 1992, a third party emerged at the last minute and Bill Clinton became president with less than 50 percent of the vote. In 2004, the Swift Boat Veterans didn't come into play until late summer, and they are widely credited with defeating John Kerry.
The real “October surprise” would be if no surprise came.
That leads us to speculate about what the unexpected event might be and how it might affect the election, no matter who runs.
$40 a Barrel Oil – The Financial Intelligence Report recently predicted that oil prices could fall dramatically by spring of 2007 to $40 per barrel. This is the same publication that, in April 2004, correctly predicted the skyrocketing oil prices about which we are now complaining.
Cheaper crude, while it would give the American economy a short-term boost, would ultimately devalue the dollar and wreak untold havoc on the economy. As history has shown, a country in crisis votes differently in presidential elections than a country whose voters feel secure.
If the prevailing attitude is that the economy must be repaired top-down, a Republican will win. If the situation turns so bad that social programs become imperative for a large number of people, and a bottom-up economic approach is considered necessary, a Democrat will win the White House.
The Campaign Finance Reform Boomerang – Let's just admit it: McCain-Feingold doesn't work. With third-party contributions kept artificially low, only incumbents and the wealthiest contenders stand a chance of running thorough and effective campaigns.
Even sponsor John McCain recently admitted on the Don Imus radio show that the law bearing his name “has its warts.” Widely touted as the likely Republican presidential nominee, will McCain be able to ride his warty namesake to victory? Or will his law's good intentions relieve his campaign of cash and cut him off at the primary?
Either way, the new laws and regulations will have an effect on who calls 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. home in January, 2009.
National Calamity – Americans usually unite behind a president when a national tragedy strikes. (Think Pearl Harbor, the Great Depression and 9/11.) Then, within a few months, the president is often criticized for not handling the situation well enough for whatever reason. Look at the delayed negative reaction to the handling of Hurricane Katrina, for example.
But what if, in the next year or so, the government – with President Bush at the helm -- handled a national tragedy perfectly? What if no one could even come up with a credible reason to chastise the administration? What would that do for the nominees? Would it mean a Republican shoo-in? Probably, if it occurred at the right time. With any number of potential unforeseen problems looming, it could be the Republicans' race to lose.
Escalation of International Tensions – It's no secret that the U.S. is Public Enemy No. 1 for some big-time world leaders. Kim Jong-il of North Korea, Osama bin Laden, a smattering of South Americans, some vengeful old-school Iraqis and some irate Iranians to name a few. Should any of these folks decide to act between now and November 2008, our elections will be turned upside down. But there are so many possible events and outcomes that could arise from these international fronts that it is impossible to judge the impact it would have, except to say that if it happened close to the election or, if Americans perceived that the Bush Administration handled it correctly and well, then the GOP would likely retain control of the White House.
The Impact of 2006 on 2008 – Here are three possible outcomes to the November elections, and how they might affect the 2008 elections:
Democrats win the House or the Senate in 2006, but turn to investigation, indictments and/or impeachment, hoping to put the final nail in the GOP coffin. This plan backfires and turns the American public off, ushering in another Republican administration.
Democrats win the House or the Senate in 2006, and focus on improvement and pro-active changes, rather than on vengeance and payback for years of Republican rule. This bolsters the Democratic party and they retake the White House.
Democrats lose both houses, and the public is left wondering about the stability and viability of a party that can't beat the embattled Republicans, whose president's approval rating is at a record-breaking nadir. This loss of confidence leads to Republican victory in 2008.
The First Spouse – If Hillary Clinton were to become the Democrats' nominee for president in 2008, as many seem to think, we would see something we haven't seen since the first Clinton Administration and, before that, since Eleanor Roosevelt: the vocal First Spouse. First Husband Bill Clinton would be as divisive as Hillary was in his first election. In fact, he wouldn't even have to be terribly vocal – his mere presence is enough. That leaves the Democrats with a polarizing candidate with a polarizing spouse, which could, again, pave the road to Republican victory.
The ‘Hail Mary' Pass – In this scenario, Vice President Dick Cheney steps down, likely citing health reasons, real or not, and his post is bestowed upon Condoleezza Rice. She proves she can handle the job as well as she has handled every other job she's had. She sticks to her guns, refusing to run for president, but she does agree to stay on as vice president. With an African-American woman on the Republican ticket, the entire dynamic of the election changes.
As I've said, the only real surprise in November 2008 would be if no surprise came to pass. The world will likely be a different place by then, owing to any number of factors, so it's really too early to begin prognosticating with any real hope of accuracy. But what we can do is line up the best, most capable candidates – the ones who could handle any of the situations outlined above -- and beg until our knees bleed for them to run for president.
