By David I. Rabinowe
The 2004 campaign season is over -- time for the “political hot stove” to heat up – and much like baseball - the biggest news involves $$$.
There are, of course, many lessons to learn from the '04 cycle: Who is positioned for higher office? Who are the new hot political prospects? How will what happened in the 2004 elections affect 2006, 2008 and beyond? And of course, what lessons can we learn from what happened last November? But perhaps most important to everyone in the game is that now, more then ever, politics is a big money game – and I mean REALLY BIG MONEY.
The 2004 elections were the most expensive ever. At the federal level, 1402 candidates ran for congressional office in 2004. According to the Center for Responsive Politics (www.opensecrets.org) they combined to raise a total of $1,176,099,603 and spent $1,104,695,615 (that's right -- congressional candidates raised and spent over a billion dollars – for jobs that pay about $150,000 per year!) These numbers are up from $964,195,318 raised and $930,186,153 spent by congressional candidates in the 2002 cycle.
When it comes to presidential politics the numbers are even more amazing. In 2004 the candidates raised a total of $963,046,722 and spent $810,972,725. These numbers nearly tripled from the 2000 campaign when a “mere” $375,263,914 was raised and $355,044,015 was spent. Of course the 2004 election was the first presidential election to be contested under the new campaign finance laws that increased contribution limits almost across the board, so these numbers are not a complete surprise.
In addition to what we learn from the sheer numbers, there are also some things that can be learned from looking at some of the individual races that took place in 2004 from around the country.
The most interesting campaign at the congressional level had to be John Thune's defeat of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in his South Dakota Senate race.
This was one of, if not the most, competitive congressional races in the country, and also the most expensive. That's right - a senate race in South Dakota was the most expensive race in the country. (Imagine the cost of this race if it were waged in California or New York…)
Thune won the election with 51% of the vote after raising over 16 million dollars and spending over 14 million. His opponent raised over 20 million and spent over 21 million in a losing effort. As the David who sleighed Goliath in this nationally-watched race, Thune immediately becomes a major player in the 109th Congress, even as a freshman and his position in the party is only enhanced by the fact that he has proven he can raise the money needed to win the big one.
The second most expensive contest was predictable, if only because of its location. Senator Charles Schumer's race for re-election in New York ranked second nationally in cost, but this was somewhat surprising because Schumer was virtually unopposed. Schumer raised over 27 million dollars in a race that he won with 71% of the vote. His most “serious” opponent, Republican Howard Mills, who received 25% of the vote raised and spent just over $600,000.
But, here is the most interesting news. Senator Schumer spent only 17 million of the 27 million he raised on his own race, thus positioning him very well to help Democratic candidates in the 2006 and 2008 cycles with the 10 million he has on hand. He therefore becomes a major player and potential financial asset to his party.
While discussing the Empire State it is interesting to look at where Hillary Clinton stands as her reelection cycle begins in earnest. In 2000 she defeated Rick Lazio fairly easily but 2006 could be a very different race. Possible opponents whose names have been floated include former NYC Mayor Rudy Guliani, incumbent NY Governor George Pataki and former Secretary of State Colin Powell – a native New Yorker.
If any one of this trio decides to take on Senator Clinton, the campaign will no doubt be the most hotly contested and expensive race in 2006. It will also position the winner very well for a potential run for President in 2008.
In an attempt to thwart off these stiff challenges – or be ready should they arrive, Senator Clinton has already raised over 10 million dollars for her re-election war chest, and if “EMILY” is right and Early Money Is Like Yeast – her dough is likely to rise as the 2006 election cycle heats up.
Another well positioned prominent player and potential 2008 presidential candidate hails from across the country – Arizona's Senator John McCain. McCain won re-election in 2004 with a resounding 77% of the vote – and spent a mere 4 million dollars to do it. Of course it helps when your primary challenge comes from Democrat Stewart Starky, who raised and spent a total of just under $13,000.
None-the less, Senator McCain has 1.37 million dollars cash on hand and a proven ability to raise the necessary money to run a presidential campaign. In addition, the political calendar is nice to him. Having been re-elected in 2004 he has the luxury of not having to run in 2006 unlike Senator Clinton and therefore gains the opportunity to get an early start on a 2008 presidential run.
There are others of course who are well positioned after the events of 2004 – Senators Barak Obama, Evan Bayh and Gov. Bill Richardson for the Democrats and Senators. Bill Frist, Chuck Hagel and Gov. Mitt Romney on the Republican side.
And 2006 will surely have some say in who is positioned for 2008. Need proof? How many could predict in 1996 that then Texas Governor George W. Bush would be the 2000 Republican nominee?
