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Learn From The Experts Articles
Winning Your Race in the Final Weeks
Never Stop Campaigning
By Dotty E. LeMieux
Absentee Voters Acting More like Poll Voters:
You may think with all the new absentee registrants, up to 80% in some Districts, that there’s not much you can do in the final days of the campaign to influence voters. After all, haven’t most of them cast their ballots already?
You’d be wrong.
An increasing number of permanent absentee voters are holding on to their ballots until closer to Election Day, many opting to walk them into the precinct place themselves.
Last minute campaigning can make all the difference, especially in close races. As a campaign consultant, I have seen razor thin races decided in the weeks following the election, when the late absentee and provisional ballots are counted.
I have seen others creep toward the victory line as the last of the outlying precincts start to show up at the Registrar’s office late on election night. Many a crestfallen candidate, ready to concede at midnight on the first Tuesday in November, was surprisingly hoisting a glass of champagne two weeks later.
With absentee voting becoming more and more the norm in America (in California for instance, 41% of all voters cast absentee ballots in the 2006 Gubernatorial election; of those nearly half came in too late to be counted by election day), more voters are opting to cast their vote in the comfort of their own home. However, many of these newer absentee voters are opting to hang onto their ballots longer, either mailing them in the last week, or, in ever increasing numbers, carrying them in either to the Registrar of Voters’ office or to the polling place on Election Day.
In that way, they behave more like poll voters (voters who go to the polls, stand in line and cast their ballot) than traditional absentee voters of even 5 years ago. Those voters are typically older and more conservative. Besides the late absentee voters, there will always be poll voters, as many people enjoy the camaraderie of joining their fellow voters in the local church hall or school lunch room.
Others simply have not made up their mind in time to cast an absentee ballot and may be making their decision in the polling booth.
Whether they are late absentee voters or poll voters, these are the people who will make the difference in a close race and the serious candidate must court them to the very last campaigning minute.
Plan Carefully:
This means not blowing your whole campaign budget on an absentee mailing early in the campaign. Although that absentee mail is critical for those voters ready to vote as soon as their absentee ballot arrives in the mail (generally one month before Election Day), be prepared for that late “hit” piece. Late attacks by either by your opponent or an independent expenditure committee are becoming more prevalent even in down ticket races as Unions, development groups and others try to get a candidate representing their views into City Councils or Boards of Supervisors, where many crucial decisions will be made.
The following are my top ten tips that can help you plan for the last weeks of the campaign and those voters who may make the crucial difference in your race:
- Have a good campaign plan in place early with your late precinct walking, phoning, last minute mail drops and GOTV built in.
- Budget wisely. Make sure you have sufficient funds for late contingencies. Never stop fundraising. Your biggest donors may well be the most willing to help fund last minute mail or robo calls.
- Treat your volunteers well, so they are not burned out by the last week. You will need them to make those last phone calls and walk those last precincts.
- Be ready to respond to a negative attack ad or mail piece by having sufficient funds to strike back.
- Cultivate a good relationship with the press, so you are assured of coverage for the late breaking stories with a positive spin for you.
- Letters to the editor can keep coming through that last important weekend. Have someone ready to write them and others to sign them.
- Check with the Registrar’s office for names of those who have already voted and purge them from your lists.
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Get the weekly lists of new absentee applications and send a special piece of mail, even a short note from the candidate personally to them.
- Save enough signs for a visibility program and last weekend “Honk and wave” events at key intersections.
- Never stop campaigning.
Being able to respond in the last week may make all the difference. Through hasty mail, literature drops at the voters’ doors, or “robo” calls, you can get to those late voters with your message, and defeat even a much better funded opponent.
If you plan well, budget carefully, and keep your volunteers energized, you increase your chances of not being on the losing end of a 25 vote difference.
Dotty E. LeMieux is the principal in Green Dog Campaigns
and Communications, www.greendogcampaigns.com, a full service
campaign consulting firm for progressive Democrats and
non-partisan candidates in California. Dotty specializes in helping
your ailing campaign in the last weeks. Dotty can
be reached at Click here to contact this Author
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